The subjective probability of efforts resulting in the outcome (the first level outcomes), is known as :

In Victor Vroom's VIE Theory of Motivation, Expectancy is defined as the individual's subjective probability (ranging from 0 to 1) that a given level of effort will lead to successful performance (the first-level outcome). By contrast, Instrumentality is the perceived probability that first-level performance outcomes will lead to second-level rewards.